Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-02-23 21.799078 26.210974 31.087091 36.848687 43.441943 50.722466 59.339993
2025-03-02 14.756361 20.345034 27.190086 36.069608 47.152094 60.391216 77.252714
2025-03-09 11.091569 17.062639 24.986640 36.010737 50.659184 69.145068 93.885746
2025-03-16 8.050521 13.750419 21.902812 33.984446 50.943829 73.372073 104.657098
2025-03-23 6.737378 12.550361 21.386103 35.150095 55.304720 82.915600 122.627171
2025-03-30 5.356835 10.917160 19.908247 34.623891 57.072924 88.877557 135.953461
2025-04-06 4.727998 10.382241 19.998392 36.369444 62.156464 99.646808 156.362454
2025-04-13 3.509638 8.511781 17.598427 33.865231 60.535539 100.564864 162.751044
2025-04-20 3.002293 7.874205 17.186575 34.501949 63.746789 108.672653 179.815679
2025-04-27 2.619309 7.400362 16.984388 35.435310 67.444335 117.646969 198.503641
2025-05-04 2.327192 7.055201 16.962657 36.653136 71.649188 127.563166 218.979950
2025-05-11 2.034346 6.636399 16.727518 37.435419 75.134340 136.473557 238.238518
2025-05-18 1.655302 5.948199 15.930693 37.265045 77.288482 143.892862 256.393445
2025-05-25 1.294990 5.194679 14.874138 36.493815 78.373687 149.741219 272.566341
2025-06-01 1.049686 4.673542 14.227655 36.435332 80.697448 157.712663 292.435081
2025-06-08 0.756788 3.867769 12.731122 34.389748 79.100161 158.893022 301.243171
2025-06-15 0.658411 3.683263 12.738287 35.566561 83.718609 170.986789 328.525352
2025-06-22 0.515496 3.258829 12.024993 35.035328 84.925235 177.119192 346.038610
2025-06-29 0.466996 3.198358 12.298186 36.797506 90.829721 191.879629 378.711355
2025-07-06 0.317482 2.587400 10.844882 34.269393 87.753893 190.215430 383.119659
2025-07-13 0.266880 2.424371 10.700355 34.912219 91.318557 200.881436 409.296433
2025-07-20 0.229293 2.307366 10.676880 35.854495 95.576647 213.012837 438.452251
2025-07-27 0.201215 2.227905 10.761476 37.083886 100.530464 226.651968 470.716794